Market Formats
Cupdiction sports markets follow a consistent YES/NO binary structure. Every market asks a question with exactly one verifiable outcome.
Binary YES/NO
Every market resolves to either YES (100¢) or NO (0¢). There are no draws, no partial payouts, and no tiers.
You take a position at the current price and hold until resolution. If you’re right, your shares pay out at 100¢ each.
Types of sports markets
Match outcome
The most common format. One team/player wins, the other doesn’t.
| Question | Resolves YES if… |
|---|---|
| ”Brazil to beat Germany?” | Brazil wins (including extra time / penalties) |
| “Carlos Alcaraz to win Wimbledon?” | Alcaraz lifts the trophy |
| ”Jon Jones to defend the title?” | Jones wins by any method |
Draws in soccer are handled by creating separate markets for each outcome:
- “Mexico to beat South Africa?” — YES only if Mexico wins
- “South Africa to beat Mexico?” — YES only if South Africa wins
- “Draw?” — YES only if the match ends level after 90 min
Tournament winner
Long-running markets that stay open for the full tournament.
| Question | Resolves YES if… |
|---|---|
| ”France to win World Cup 2026?” | France wins the final |
| ”Boston Celtics to win 2026 NBA Finals?” | Celtics win the championship |
| ”LA Dodgers to win 2026 World Series?” | Dodgers win Game 7 (or earlier) |
These markets may see large price swings as the tournament progresses.
Player performance
Tied to individual player stats or achievements within a specific match or stage.
| Question | Resolves YES if… |
|---|---|
| ”Mbappé to score in Group Stage?” | Mbappé scores ≥1 goal in any group stage match |
| ”Haaland to score in Group Stage?” | Haaland scores ≥1 goal in any group stage match |
| ”Shohei Ohtani wins NL MVP?” | Ohtani receives the MLB NL MVP award |
Prop / special outcomes
Markets on specific in-game or tournament-level conditions.
| Question | Resolves YES if… |
|---|---|
| ”World Cup Final goes to penalties?” | Final is decided by a penalty shootout |
| ”2026 NBA Finals goes to 7 games?” | Series reaches Game 7 |
| ”All 3 hosts advance from groups?” | USA, Mexico, and Canada all reach Round of 32 |
| ”African team reaches World Cup semis?” | Any African nation finishes top 4 |
| ”English club wins UCL?” | An English club wins Champions League |
Price interpretation
| Price | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 10¢ | Market believes 10% chance of YES |
| 50¢ | Market believes event is a coin flip |
| 80¢ | Market believes 80% chance of YES |
Prices move based on trading activity. Buying YES pushes the price up; buying NO pushes it down.
Price = probability. A YES at 65¢ implies the crowd thinks the event has a 65% chance of happening.
Market status
Every market on Cupdiction has a status label that tells you whether you can trade and when the event happens.
| Status | Meaning | Can you trade? |
|---|---|---|
| Preview | Market exists, event is upcoming, trading not yet open | No — join Trade Queue |
| Soon | Event is days away, trading opens imminently | No — join Trade Queue |
| Open | Trading is live right now | Yes |
| Closed | Event has started, positions are locked | No |
| Resolved | Event finished, payouts issued | No |
| Voided | Market cancelled, stakes refunded | No |
Preview vs Open
Most markets launch in Preview mode when trading hasn’t opened yet (before June 8, 2026). You can see the market and queue a position, but your trade activates only when the market goes Open.
Soon is a short window (typically 24–72 hours before open) — the market is about to go live.
Use the Trade Queue to lock in your position on any Preview or Soon market. Your queued trade activates automatically when trading opens — at the price you queued at.
When markets close
Markets stop accepting trades when the event starts. After that, positions are locked until resolution.
| Event type | Closes |
|---|---|
| Single match | At kickoff / tip-off / first serve |
| Tournament winner | At tournament start or knockout round draw |
| Player prop | At the start of the relevant match/stage |
What happens at resolution
- Official result is published by the data source (Azuro / official governing body)
- Oracle confirms the outcome
- YES shares pay out 100¢; NO shares pay out 0¢
- USDC credited to your wallet within minutes
→ See Resolution Rules for how disputes and edge cases are handled